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China’s 2022 Economic Outlook Based on GDP and Economic Indicators from 20215/7/2022
China’s 2022 Economic Outlook Based on GDP and Economic Indicators from 2021 As the world’s second-largest economy, China is expected to account for more than 18 percent of the global economy and contribute more than 25 percent of global economic growth in 2021, according to the country’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).To get more economy news today, you can visit shine news official website.
The GDP growth rate easily topped Beijing’s target of “above six percent”, thanks to a sustained export boom and a low comparison base – in virus-ravaged 2020, the economy grew merely 2.2 percent.In the last quarter, China’s GDP grew four percent from a year earlier, down from the 4.9 percent growth in Q3, the 7.9 percent in Q2, and the 18.3 percent in Q1. Despite the slowdown, the Q4 GDP year-on-year growth exceeded economists’ forecasts of 3.6 to 3.7 percent, and on a quarterly basis, it grew a moderate 1.6 percent.
The lower GDP growth in Q4 was a result of a combination of factors – a less favorable comparison base, a property downturn under the government’s continued deleveraging efforts, virus disruptions, weak domestic spending, and diminished support from exports. Looking ahead, economic growth in 2022 faces various headwinds. Ning Jizhe, head of the NBS, warned China is now facing “triple pressures from shrinking demand, supply shocks, and weakening expectations”. Compounding the problem is a worsening demographic picture – in 2020, the birth rate in China fell to its lowest point in more than four decades, at a faster-than-expected pace.Economic data show that China’s economy is mainly driven by strong industrial output and exports. In 2021, the two-year average growth of industrial output exceeded the pre-COVID-19 level in 2019 and the year-on-year growth rate of exports in dollar terms hit the highest level since 2011. However, the two-year average growth of services, consumption, and investment all failed to return back to the pre-pandemic trajectory, which dragged down the wider economic performance.
On the demand side, investment made a surprisingly negative contribution to GDP growth in Q4 at -11.6 percent. This is mainly because the government’s deleveraging efforts led to a sharp drop in real estate investment, which further impacted secondary sector output growth.
While investment in manufacturing continues to recover, among which investment in high-tech manufacturing increased 22.2 percent for 2021, it has been insufficient to recoup the overall loss.
China’s net exports contributed a much-needed 26.4 percent in Q4, indicating that a sustained export boom has prevented a worse economic slowdown by the end of 2021. However, exports growth showed signs of slowing in the last quarter as developed countries withdrew stimulus packages, leading to a pullback in external demand. China’s fixed-asset investments – including investment in infrastructure, machinery and equipment, and real estate development – grew 4.9 percent for the whole of 2021, down from a 5.2 percent expansion for the first 11 months.
Of it, investment in real estate saw a sharp drop, as the government restricted developer financing and home purchases in an effort to curb property speculation and credit expansion. In the second half of 2021, the cumulative year-on-year growth of real estate investment dropped from 15 percent to 4.4 percent. Although debt restrictions eased in Q4, year-on-year growth of real estate investment further slowed to 4.4 percent in the January-December period from a six percent increase for the first 11 months.
Infrastructure investment grew at a snail’s pace last year, which rose a slight 0.4 percent for the full year, down from a 0.5 percent growth pace in the first 11 months. Land sales slump and tightened regulation of local government hidden debt have constrained investment in infrastructure.
Manufacturing investment continued to pick up. Investment in manufacturing grew by 13.5 percent in 2021 from a year ago, with investment in special purpose machinery rising the most, up 24.3 percent year-on-year.
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